In order to continue the high economic growth, Vietnam needs to meet the demand for domestic electricity with a large increase. EVN estimates that if Vietnam's economy grows by 1%, electricity demand will increase by 2%, respectively.
With a population of about 100 million and an annual GDP growth of about 7%, Vietnam has forecasted that electricity production needs to increase from about 47,000 megawatts (MW) to 60,000 MW by 2020 and 129,500 MW by 2030.
To achieve these goals, Vietnam will need to add more than the total installed capacity of Thailand by 2025 and the country's electricity industry may be larger than the UK in the mid-2020s.
Once dependent on hydroelectricity, to meet the demand for explosive electricity, Vietnam is promoting the development of coal power, which is considered pollution. According to the Harvard Kennedy School Ash's study of Vietnam, Vietnam's coal use in the next five years has increased by 75%, faster than any other country in the world.
Power Plan 7 (PDP 7) of Vietnam focuses on developing coal power for the 2010-2020 cycle. However, according to analysts, the Power Plan 8, the orientation plan for the electricity industry in the next 10 years will be announced later this year will shift strongly to renewable energy, mainly wind power and solar power.
Specifically, in PDP 7, it is forecasted that coal power energy will double the market share of electricity generation from 33% to 66% by 2030. However, in the adjustment of PDP 7 in 2016, there is the appearance of regenerative energy.
If the Vietnamese government's policy continues to support renewable energy, wind and solar become cheaper and better, Mr. Dieter Billen of Roland Berger said, a consultancy company that renewable energy can even be challenged coal electricity generation into Vietnam's largest electricity source by 2030. |